Me ke komo mālie ʻana o ka ʻĀkau ʻĀkau i ka hoʻoilo a me ka mālama kinoea ma ke kūlana maikaʻi, i kēia pule, ua kāhāhā kekahi mau ʻaelike kinoea kūlohelohe no ka wā pōkole ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me ʻEulopa i ka ʻike ʻana i nā "kumukūʻai kinoea maikaʻi ʻole".Ua hala ka haunaele nui ma ka mākeke kinoea honua?
Ua hoʻokuʻu hou ʻia ka International Energy Agency (IEA) i ka Natural Gas Analysis and Outlook (2022-2025) hōʻike, i ʻōlelo ʻia ʻoiai ʻoiai ʻo ka mākeke kinoea kūlohelohe o ʻAmelika ʻAmelika e hoʻomau nei, ua manaʻo ʻia ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻohana kinoea kūlohelohe e 0.5% i kēia makahiki ma muli o i ka ho'ēmiʻana i nā hana hoʻokele waiwai ma Asia a me ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ke koi kinoea kūlohelohe ma ʻEulopa.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ua ʻōlelo ʻo IEA i kāna ʻike ʻana i ka mākeke kinoea kūlohelohe i kēlā me kēia makahiki e kū mau ana ʻo ʻEulopa i kahi pilikia "ʻaʻole i ʻike mua ʻia" o ka nele kinoea maoli i ka hoʻoilo o 2022/2023, a manaʻo ʻia e mālama i ke kinoea.
E kū'ē i ke kua o ka hāʻule o ka honua i ka noi, ʻo ka emi ʻana o ʻEulopa ka mea nui loa.Hōʻike ka hōʻike mai kēia makahiki, ua loli nā kumukūʻai kūlohelohe a ʻaʻole paʻa ka lako ma muli o ka paio ma waena o Russia a me Ukraine.ʻO ke koi no ke kinoea kūlohelohe ma ʻEulopa i nā hapaha mua ʻekolu ua emi iho e 10% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala.
I ka manawa like, ua lohi ka noi no ke kinoea maoli ma Asia a me Central a me ʻAmelika Hema.Eia nō naʻe, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ka hōʻike he ʻokoʻa nā kumu o ka lohi ʻana o ka noi ma kēia mau ʻāina mai nā mea ma ʻEulopa, no ka mea ʻaʻole i hoʻihoʻi hou ʻia nā hana waiwai.
ʻO ʻAmelika ʻĀkau kekahi o nā wahi liʻiliʻi kahi i piʻi ai ke koi no ke kinoea kūlohelohe mai kēia makahiki - ua hoʻonui ʻia ke koi o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me Kanada e 4% a me 8%.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili i hāʻawi ʻia e ka Pelekikena Komisina ʻEulopa ʻo Von Delain i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻOkakopa, ua emi ka hilinaʻi o ka EU i ke kinoea kūlohelohe Lūkini mai 41% i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka makahiki a i 7.5% i kēia manawa.Eia nō naʻe, ua hoʻokō ʻo ʻEulopa i kāna pahuhopu mālama kinoea ma mua o ka manawa ʻaʻole hiki iā ia ke manaʻo e ola ke kinoea kūlohelohe Lūkini i ka hoʻoilo.Wahi a ka ʻikepili o European Natural Gas Infrastructure (GIE), ua hōʻea ka mālama ʻana o nā hale UGS ma ʻEulopa i ka 93.61%.Ma mua, ua hoʻokō nā ʻāina o EU i ka liʻiliʻi o 80% o nā hale mālama kinoea i ka hoʻoilo i kēia makahiki a me 90% i nā wā hoʻoilo a pau.
E like me ka manawa o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana, ua hōʻike ʻia ka TTF benchmark Dutch maoli gas futures price, i kapa ʻia ʻo "wind vane" o nā kumukūʻai kinoea kūlohelohe ʻEulopa, i hōʻike ʻia he 99.79 euros / MWh i Nowemapa, ʻoi aku ma mua o 70% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka piko o 350 euros / MWh i ʻAukake.
Manaʻo ʻo IEA ke lohi nei ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke kinoea maoli a nui ka kānalua.Hōʻike ka hōʻike i ka ulu ʻana o ke koi kinoea honua i ka makahiki 2024 e hoʻemi ʻia e 60% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me kāna wānana mua;Ma ka makahiki 2025, e loaʻa i ka honua holoʻokoʻa ka nui o ka ulu makahiki he 0.8% wale nō, ʻo ia ka 0.9 pakeneka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka wānana mua o ka ulu makahiki awelika o 1.7%.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Oct-28-2022